Turkey's 2015 Elections: A Tumultuous Year

Hey guys, let's dive into a seriously wild year in Turkish politics: 2015. This wasn't just any election year; it was a rollercoaster of uncertainty, shifting alliances, and a whole lot of drama. We're talking about two general elections in one year, which is pretty unheard of, right? So, buckle up as we break down what made the 2015 Turkish elections so pivotal and what it all meant for the country. It’s a story filled with unexpected turns, and understanding it is key to grasping modern Turkish politics.

The Political Landscape Before the Storm

Before the first ballot was even cast in 2015, Turkey was already simmering with political tension. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had been in power for over a decade. They had overseen a period of significant economic growth and reforms early on, which earned them considerable support. However, by 2015, cracks were starting to show. There was growing concern about democratic backsliding, freedom of the press, and the concentration of power. The Gezi Park protests in 2013 had highlighted a deep societal division and a growing opposition movement, even though the AKP managed to weather that storm politically. The opposition was fragmented, with the Republican People's Party (CHP) being the main secularist force, and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) appealing to a more nationalist base. But the real game-changer in recent years had been the rise of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), a pro-Kurdish party that managed to cross the crucial 10% electoral threshold in previous local elections, signaling a potential shift in the parliamentary makeup. The 2015 Turkish elections were therefore set against a backdrop of a dominant ruling party facing increasing scrutiny and a fragmented but potentially empowered opposition. The AKP's goal was to secure a supermajority in parliament to change the constitution and move towards a presidential system, a move heavily opposed by the secular and Kurdish-leaning parties. This ambition alone fueled much of the political polarization leading up to the elections. The international context also played a role, with regional instability and Turkey's role in combating ISIS adding another layer of complexity. The economic picture, while still relatively strong compared to some neighbors, was also showing signs of strain, with inflation and currency fluctuations becoming points of concern for voters. It was a complex mix of domestic issues, leadership ambitions, and regional dynamics that set the stage for the seismic events of 2015.

The First Round: June 7th - A Shockwave

The first of the 2015 Turkish elections, held on June 7th, delivered a result that sent shockwaves across the nation and beyond. The AKP, which had enjoyed a comfortable majority for years, lost its ability to form a single-party government for the first time since 2002. This was a massive blow to President Erdoğan's ambitions. The main reason for this stunning upset? The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), led by figures like Selahattin Demirtaş, managed to achieve a historic breakthrough by crossing the 10% national threshold and securing 13% of the vote. This meant they won 80 seats in the Grand National Assembly, effectively stripping the AKP of its majority. The HDP's success was attributed to its ability to mobilize a broad coalition of voters, including Kurds, leftists, and liberal Turks who were disillusioned with the AKP's increasingly authoritarian tendencies and its handling of the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The Republican People's Party (CHP) also saw a modest increase in its vote share, holding steady as the second-largest party. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), while not gaining significantly, held its ground. The outcome was a hung parliament, meaning no single party had enough seats to form a government on its own. This threw Turkey into a period of intense political uncertainty and complex coalition negotiations. President Erdoğan initially tasked the AKP with forming a coalition, but talks with the CHP and MHP failed. The MHP, in particular, refused to even consider a coalition with the HDP, and the CHP was unwilling to form a government with the AKP without significant concessions. The failure to form a government meant that the political deadlock deepened, and the prospect of a snap election loomed large. The international community watched with concern, as Turkey's political stability is crucial for regional security. The 2015 Turkish elections had not provided a clear mandate, and the country was heading into uncharted territory. The excitement of the HDP's success was soon tempered by the grim reality of political paralysis. The hope for a new political dynamic was palpable, but the path forward was far from clear. The AKP, still the largest party, found itself in an unaccustomed position of needing to negotiate, a stark contrast to their years of single-party rule. The failure to form a government wasn't just a procedural hiccup; it reflected deep-seated ideological divides and a lack of trust among the major political players. This initial election set the stage for an even more dramatic turn of events.

The Coalition Conundrum and Rising Tensions

Following the June 7th election, Turkey entered a tense period of coalition negotiations that ultimately proved fruitless. The 2015 Turkish elections had created a hung parliament, and the country's political future hung precariously in the balance. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, on behalf of the AKP, engaged in talks with the other major parties. However, these negotiations were fraught with difficulties and deep ideological divides. The Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition, demanded significant policy shifts and a clear break from what they saw as authoritarian tendencies within the AKP. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), while ideologically closer to the AKP than the CHP, was staunchly opposed to any form of cooperation with the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and also held reservations about the AKP's long-term vision. The HDP, on the other hand, found itself in a kingmaker position but was ostracized by the other major parties, particularly the MHP and the AKP, due to its pro-Kurdish stance and its past associations. The inability to forge a consensus was not just a matter of political maneuvering; it reflected the profound polarization within Turkish society. President Erdoğan and the AKP leadership were reportedly unwilling to compromise significantly, still harboring hopes of regaining a majority, perhaps through a fresh election. As the deadline for forming a government approached, it became clear that a coalition was not forthcoming. Adding to the volatile atmosphere, the fragile peace process with the PKK, which had been a key plank of the HDP's platform and a supposed achievement of the AKP, began to unravel dramatically. There were increasing security incidents, including attacks attributed to the PKK and retaliatory actions by the Turkish military, particularly in southeastern Turkey. This resurgence of violence cast a dark shadow over the political landscape and further complicated any potential coalition building. The breakdown of talks and the escalating security situation created a sense of urgency and instability. The dream of a new era of coalition politics, born out of the June election, quickly faded. Instead, the country found itself on the brink of another election, with tensions higher than ever. The 2015 Turkish elections had opened a Pandora's box of political challenges, and the failure to form a government only exacerbated them. The hope that the electoral outcome would lead to greater political maturity and cooperation was dashed, replaced by a grim anticipation of further political conflict. The country seemed to be heading towards a dangerous precipice, with the fragile peace process also in jeopardy. It was a period of immense strain and uncertainty for Turkey.

The Snap Election: November 1st - A Return to the Status Quo?

With coalition talks collapsing and political deadlock persisting, Turkey was forced to hold a second general election on November 1st, just a few months after the June vote. The 2015 Turkish elections, this time a snap election, were held under a dramatically altered and significantly more dangerous atmosphere. The intervening months had seen a surge in violence, with the PKK resuming its armed campaign against the Turkish state and Ankara launching significant military operations in response, particularly in Kurdish-populated areas. This escalation of conflict had a profound impact on the election campaign, shifting the focus from economic issues and democratic reforms towards security and national identity. The campaign was marred by a horrific bombing in Ankara just weeks before the vote, which killed over 100 people and was attributed to ISIS, although tensions between the government and Kurdish groups also ran high. The tragic event underscored the precarious security situation the country was facing. The results of the November 1st election were a stunning reversal of fortune for the AKP. The party, led by Prime Minister Davutoğlu, managed to regain its parliamentary majority, securing 317 seats out of 550. This comeback was largely attributed to a shift in voter sentiment. Many voters who had supported other parties in June, particularly nationalist voters who had drifted towards the MHP or even the CHP, returned to the AKP, swayed by the renewed focus on security and national unity. The fear of instability and the perceived threat from the PKK seemed to benefit the ruling party. The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), on the other hand, suffered a significant setback. Its vote share dropped below the 10% threshold in some polls, but it ultimately managed to retain enough support to secure seats, though fewer than in June. The resurgence of violence and the ensuing crackdown likely alienated some of its more moderate supporters while galvanizing its core base. The Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) both saw their vote shares decline slightly, as many of their voters seemingly flocked back to the AKP amidst the security concerns. The outcome of the November 1st 2015 Turkish elections effectively returned the country to a single-party government, albeit one that had been weakened by the earlier vote. President Erdoğan and the AKP could now proceed with their agenda, including their push for a presidential system. The brief period of political uncertainty and the experiment with coalition politics were over, replaced by a familiar landscape of single-party dominance. However, the underlying societal divisions and the unresolved Kurdish issue remained, promising future challenges. The violence and the atmosphere of fear had clearly played a significant role in shaping the electoral outcome, raising questions about the nature of the mandate received.

The Aftermath and Long-Term Implications

The 2015 Turkish elections, in both their June and November iterations, left an indelible mark on Turkey's political trajectory. The immediate aftermath saw the Justice and Development Party (AKP), under President Erdoğan's strong influence, re-establish its single-party majority in November after the failure to form a coalition post-June. This meant that the push towards a constitutional overhaul, specifically the transition to an executive presidential system, could now move forward with renewed vigor. This was a critical turning point, as it fundamentally reshaped Turkey's governance structure in the years that followed, consolidating power significantly. The resurgence of intense conflict with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) following the collapse of the peace process in the summer of 2015 became a dominant feature of Turkish politics. The post-election period saw escalated military operations in the southeastern regions of Turkey, leading to widespread destruction, displacement, and a heavy human toll. This security-focused environment profoundly impacted domestic politics, often overshadowing other critical issues and contributing to a more nationalist public discourse. The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), despite its initial success in June, found itself increasingly marginalized and under pressure, facing accusations of supporting terrorism and experiencing significant political and legal crackdowns on its members and leadership. The Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) struggled to articulate a compelling alternative vision in the face of the dominant security narrative and the AKP's renewed appeal to national unity. The 2015 Turkish elections also highlighted the deep societal divisions that persisted within Turkey. The country was grappling with issues of secularism versus religious conservatism, Kurdish rights, and the balance of power between different ethnic and political groups. The elections revealed that while the AKP remained a dominant force, it no longer held the unquestioned majority it once enjoyed, suggesting a more complex and divided electorate. The long-term implications of the 2015 Turkish elections are significant. They paved the way for the eventual shift to a presidential system, fundamentally altering the checks and balances within the government. The intensification of the conflict in the southeast had lasting consequences for regional stability and human rights. Furthermore, the political polarization and the erosion of democratic norms observed during this period continued to shape Turkey's political landscape, impacting its relationship with international allies and its own citizens. The 2015 Turkish elections were not just a contest for parliamentary seats; they were a pivotal moment that defined the direction of modern Turkey, setting the stage for years of political consolidation, heightened security concerns, and ongoing societal debates. It was a year that truly tested the resilience of Turkish democracy and its institutions.